Sunday, February 10, 2013

Threat Assessment: Red Cell (Christopher Dorner)

I'd call this situation fascinating if people weren't dying.  The Dorner situation provides an examination of the risks presented by malicious insiders.  Dorner seems to be a case-study example of the types of threats modeled by Marcinko with his Red Cell antics.  Since he's been on the loose for 48 hours, it seemed worth a look...

Note: I am not an expert, or a shrink, or anything.  Just throwing ideas out there.

Info below based on a reading of the manifesto.

Subject has demonstrated a willingness and ability to attack and evade. Given the time available to plan this scenario, it is reasonable to expect the subject has multiple safe-houses available.  Subject will probably employ operational tactics that go beyond simple firearm attacks.

[Counter Tactics]
Given the high level of training and education displayed, specifically the repeated references to effective TTP of adversarial forces, it is reasonable to expect that the subject will employ proactive tactics to maximize his ability to both successfully strike and evade capture. Examples include diversion and subterfuge used in support of primary mission execution, secondary attacks to demoralize operational LEO assets, and tactics that create resource/asset drag on operational LEO assets.

It is reasonable to expect the subject continues to actively employ signals and cyber technologies to perform ISR.  Wherever possible, communication via secure technologies should be employed in order to prevent eavesdropping.

[Current Location]
Until the subject is located or attacks again, it must remain a possibility that he has left the LA area, although this seems unlikely.

While rural locations offer many advantages, and the subject is likely at home in outdoor environments in all weather conditions, there are significant disadvantages to rural locations, such as the inability to avoid observation or scrutiny while traveling quickly.

Hiding in plain sight in a dense urban environment may offer significant advantages, such as access to resources and multiple forms of transit.  Subject is likely to employ disguises to minimize chances for recognition.

[Key Observations]
It seems likely that the subject has ongoing access to local LE and federal cyber resources.  Particular attention should be paid to valid logins coming from the SOCAL area that have collisions with other valid login timings and operating patterns.

Due to the physical size of the subject, he may choose to move primarily at night to minimize observation.

Expect trickery and subterfuge.  The subject believes himself to be in control of the situation, and will attempt to lead LE assets astray to continue operating towards his primary objective.  Don't be too quick to follow obvious paths with all available resources when capture seems likely or imminent.

Expect subject to be armed at all times, possibly with a silenced weapon.  The subject will be dressed in a style that supports a holstered concealed weapon.

[A Note to the Subject]
Don't kill me, bro.  ;)  You laid out that whole "don't even bother to profile me" thing, as if it were impossible.  In your report, you make it clear that your anger is specifically directed at LAPD for taking everything you had.  Unfortunately you're utilizing federal training to take your revenge, so you're betraying the oaths you've taken.  Your mom was correct, sometimes bad things happen to good people.  You are driven to this to regain your name, so the only path forward is to use your skills to escape and evade and build a new life.  You can only destroy with violence, it won't let you build a better reality within LAPD, like you hope it will...

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